Deterrence Messaging Prior to 24 February 2022
This post consists of a compilation of various official statements made in the months prior to 24 February 2022 that warned Russia of the consequences it would incur should it renew its aggression against Ukraine. To be clear, this is not a comprehensive list. Nevertheless, it is representative of the types of public statements conveyed, both in terms of the language employed to warn Russia, and the extent of the consequences referred to.
November 10, 2021. Secretary Anthony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Blinken: ‘We’re concerned by reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine. We’re monitoring the region very closely, as we always do, we’ll continue to consult closely as well with allies and partners on this issue. And as we’ve made clear, any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of great concern to the United States’.
November 15, 2021. Joint communiqué issued by M. Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, and Mr Heiko Maas, German Minister for Foreign Affairs. ‘Any new attempt to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity would have serious consequences’.
November 28, 2021. Joint Press Conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister of Lithuania Ingrida Simonyte. Stoltenberg: ‘we also send the message to Moscow about that, if they decide to use force, then of course there will be consequences. And we have demonstrated our will and our capability to impose costs and consequences on Russia before. We did that after the illegal annexation of Crimea back in 2014, where NATO Allies, the European Union, since then, have actually imposed heavy economic sanctions, financial sanctions on Russia. And we have also since then implemented … the biggest reinforcements of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War, with battle groups, for instance, in the Baltic region … We have tripled the size of the NATO Response Force, and we have increased our presence in the eastern part of the Alliance on land, in the air and at sea with air policing, with increased presence of NATO troops, and also with more naval presence. So we have demonstrated before our resolve to impose costs on Russia’.
November 29, 2021. Joint press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the President of Latvia, Egils Levits. Stoltenberg: ‘Any future Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price. And have serious political and economic consequences for Russia’.
November 30, 2021. UK Foreign, Commonwealth ad Development Office, News. Foreign Secretary warns a Russian incursion would be a strategic mistake. ‘She will underline that an incursion into Ukraine would be a strategic mistake, and the UK will use all diplomatic and economic levers at our disposal to avoid that outcome’.
December 1, 2021. Closing press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meetings of NATO Foreign Ministers in Riga, Latvia. ‘Ministers made clear any future Russian aggression would come at a high price, and have serious political and economic consequences for Russia. … So we have a wide range of options to make sure that Russia will be confronted with serious consequences, if they once again use force against an independent, sovereign nation Ukraine. Everything from economic sanctions, financial sanctions, political restrictions. But also, as we saw after 2014 when they illegally annexed Crimea, and continued to destabilize eastern Ukraine, support the separatists in Donbass, that actually triggered the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War’.
December 1, 2021. Keynote interview with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at Reuters Next event. ‘Therefore, we call on Russia to be transparent, to reduce tensions and to de-escalate. If they do the opposite and actually decide to, once again, use force against Ukraine then we have made it clear and ministers made that clear during the NATO foreign ministerial meeting in Latvia today, that Russia will then have to pay a high price. There will be serious consequences for Russia and that’s a clear message from NATO. … So first of all, Allies and NATO, we all have made it very clear that there will be a high price to pay and sanctions is one of the options. So I think it’s quite obvious that Russia already knows that they will pay a high price. And they have seen also that Allies implemented severe sanctions and also that NATO responded by strengthening defensive measures of NATO Allied countries in the Black Sea and the Baltic region. Exactly when we will announce what, I will not go into the details about that. And it is for individual Allies and the European Union to make decisions on sanctions. But NATO is a valuable and important platform where Allies consult and coordinate, because we represent together 50 percent of the world’s GDP. So, of course, when NATO Allies act together on these issues, it really makes a difference’.
December 7, 2021. Readout of President Biden’s Video Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. ‘President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European Allies about Russia’s escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation’.
December 7, 2021. Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Sullivan: ‘I will look you in the eye and tell you, as President Biden looked President Putin in the eye and told him today, that things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now. Now, in terms of the specifics, we would prefer to communicate that directly to the Russians, to not negotiate in public, to not telegraph our punches. But we are laying out for the Russians in some detail the types of measures that we have in mind. We are also coordinating very closely with our European allies on that at a level of deep specificity. We have experts from the Treasury Department, the State Department, and the National Security Council in daily contact with the key capitals and with Brussels to work through that package of measures. But I think it is not profitable for us to lay out the specifics of it standing here at this podium today’.
December 10, 2021. Joint news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Von der Leyen: ‘Aggression needs to come with a price tag, which is why we will communicate these points ahead of time to Russia’.
December 12, 2021. G7 Foreign Ministers’ statement on Russia and Ukraine. ‘Any use of force to change borders is strictly prohibited under international law. Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.’
December 13, 2021. Prime Minister’s Office, Press Release. PM Call with President Putin of Russia: ‘The Prime Minister emphasised the UK’s commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and warned that any destabilising action would be a strategic mistake that would have significant consequences’.
December 16, 2021. Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the situation in and around Ukraine. ‘Any further aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and would carry a high price’.
December 16, 2021. Joint press point by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Stoltenberg: ‘Any further aggression against Ukraine will have severe consequences. And would carry a high price’.
January 4, 2022: Statement by NSC Spokesperson Emily Horne on National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Call with Nordic Counterparts. ‘Mr. Sullivan and his counterparts discussed their readiness to impose severe consequences on Russia if it engages in further aggression against Ukraine’.
January 5, 2022. Russia-Ukraine – Communiqué from Jean-Yves Le Drian. ‘I reminded my colleagues, as the Heads of State and Government of the European Union did at the European Council meeting in December 2021, that any further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and come at a high cost in response, including restrictive measures in coordination with partners’.
January 7, 2022. NATO Foreign Ministers address Russia's military build-up in and around Ukraine. ‘At today’s meeting, ministers stressed that any further aggression against Ukraine would have significant consequences and carry a heavy price for Russia’.
January 12, 2022. Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of the NATO-Russia Council. ‘And therefore we also made it very clear that any use of force against Ukraine will be a severe and serious strategic mistake by Russia. And it will have severe consequences and Russia will have to pay a high price. … So we also convey a message to Russia that if they use military force, there will be severe consequences. Economic sanctions, political sanctions. We provide support, practical support to Ukraine to strengthen their ability to defend themselves. Allies do that in different ways’.
January 18, 2022. Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. Scholz: ‘It's important that we say now, it will mean high political costs for Russia should there be such an intervention and the principle of sovereignty of states and the integrity of borders should it be violated. We are committed, we have all committed to these principles. As I said, we're consulting about this, we are talking about this. We're looking into ways in which we can immediate response should such an action happen and that it will have high economic, political costs … Part and parcel of things is that it is crystal clear that Russia will have to pay a high price should there be a military intervention against Ukraine or in Ukraine.’
January 18, 2022. Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the discussion: ''New World (Dis-)Order'' organized by the Körber Stiftung and Der Spiegel. ‘And we should also do what we can to deter or dissuade Russia from once again using force against a neighbour. And therefore, we are also sending a message to Russia that there will be a high price to pay. There will be economic, financial sanctions. We provide, NATO Allies provide support to Ukraine so they can defend themselves – and also that is increasing the threshold for any use of force against Ukraine’.
January 19, 2022. Statement from Press Secretary Jen Psaki on Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine: ‘President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies. President Biden also knows from long experience that the Russians have an extensive playbook of aggression short of military action, including cyber attacks and paramilitary tactics. And he affirmed today that those acts of aggression will be met with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response’.
January 20, 2022. Prime Minister’s Office Press Release. PM Call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz: ‘The leaders discussed the concerning developments on the Ukrainian border, and agreed further military aggression would come at a high cost for Russia … any invasion of Ukraine would be a severe strategic mistake’.
January 25, 2022. Remarks by President Biden in Press Gaggle. ‘And I have made it clear to – early on to President Putin that if he were to move into Ukraine, that there’d be severe consequences, including significant economic sanctions, as well as I’d feel obliged to beef up our presence – NATO’s presence in – on the eastern front: Poland, Romania, et cetera … There will be enormous consequences if he were to go in and invade, as he could, the entire country – or a lot less than that, as well – for Russia, not only in terms of economic consequences and political consequences, but there’ll be enormous consequences worldwide … There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine’.
January 25, 2022. Background Press Call by Senior Administration Officials on Russia Ukraine Economic Deterrence Measures. Senior Administration Official: ‘You’ve no doubt heard us talk about how the United States, alongside allies and partners, continues to prepare a range of severe economic measures to impose on Russia if it further invades Ukraine. And, to repeat, we are prepared to implement sanctions with massive consequences that were not considered in 2014. That means the gradualism of the past is out, and this time we’ll start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there. We’ve made efforts to signal this intention very clearly. And I would say the deepening selloff in Russian markets, its borrowing costs, the value of its currency, market-implied default risk reflect the severity of the economic consequences we can and will impose on the Russian economy in the event of a further invasion … All options are very much on the table, and we’re united with Allies and partners to decisively impose severe consequences on Russia if it further invades Ukraine. And as we’ve said, while our actions and the EU’s actions may not be identical, we are unified in our intention to impose massive consequences that would deliver a severe and immediate blow to Russia and over time make its economy even more brittle and undercut Putin’s aspirations to exert influence on the world stage’.
January 27, 2022. Defence Secretary visits Netherlands, Germany and NATO Headquarters. Ben Wallace: ‘I have no doubt that NATO is united in its determination to uphold European Security and that any further Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a strategic mistake met by swift and severe consequences’.
January 28, 2022. Readout of President Biden’s Video Call with European Leaders on Russia and Ukraine. ‘The leaders also discussed their joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including preparations to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia for such actions as well as to reinforce security on NATO’s eastern flank’.
January 28, 2022. Transcript: Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley Press Briefing. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III: ‘As we’ve made clear, in addition to the significant economic and diplomatic costs that Russia will incur, a move on Ukraine will accomplish the very thing Russia does not want - a NATO alliance strengthened and resolved on it Western Flank’.
January 31, 2022. Statement from President Biden on United Nations Security Council Meeting. ‘If instead Russia chooses to walk away from diplomacy and attack Ukraine, Russia will bear the responsibility, and it will face swift and severe consequences’.
February 2, 2022. Readout of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.’s Call with President Emmanuel Macron of France. ‘The two leaders affirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and reviewed our ongoing coordination of both diplomacy and preparations to impose swift and severe economic costs on Russia should it further invade Ukraine’.
February 7, 2022. Press conference by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda. Stoltenberg: ‘On the sanctions, this is of course - it's not for NATO to decide sanctions, but I welcome the fact that NATO allies, the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, and also of course the European Union have made it very clear that if Russia uses force against Ukraine again there will be a high price to pay, also in the form of economic sanctions’.
February 7, 2022. Remarks by President Biden and Chancellor Scholz of the Federal Republic of Germany at Press Conference. Scholz: ‘It is important that all allies — the U.S. and Germany, the transatlantic partnership between the U.S. and Europe, NATO — say the same thing, speak with one voice, and do things together. And we made it very clear: If there was a military aggression against Ukraine, this will entail severe consequences that we agreed upon together, severe sanctions that we have worked on together. So, there will be a high price for Russia. This is a very clear message; everybody has understood it. And I think this message has been made clear again and again so that even Russia has understood the message now’. Biden: ‘if Russia invades — that means tanks or troops crossing the — the border of Ukraine again — then there will be — we — there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it’.
February 11, 2022. UK Defence Secretary meets Russian counterpart in Moscow. Ben Wallace: ‘I made clear that any invasion would have severe consequences and destabilise the security of Europe’.
February 11, 2022. Statement on the talks between Björn Seibert, Head of Cabinet of President von der Leyen, and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, European Commission Statement: ‘They reiterated that any further Russian aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe costs for the Russian Federation. And they coordinated in detail on preparations for a robust and comprehensive package of sanctions, which would be deployed swiftly in case of further military aggression by Russia’.
February 12, 2022. Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. ‘President Biden was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia’.
February 12, 2022. Secretary Blinken’s Call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. ‘The Secretary made clear that a diplomatic path to resolving the crisis remained open, but it would require Moscow to deescalate and engage in good faith discussions. He reiterated that should Moscow pursue the path of aggression and further invade Ukraine, it would result in a resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response’.
February 12, 2022. Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on diplomatic presence in Kyiv. ‘We recall that any further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe cost in response’.
February 14, 2022. Readout of President Biden’s Call with Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom. ‘They discussed efforts to reinforce the defensive posture on NATO’s eastern flank and underlined the continued close coordination among Allies and partners, including on readiness to impose severe consequences on Russia should it choose further military escalation’.
February 16, 2022. Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the first day of the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Defence. ‘From the start, NATO Allies have made clear that further Russian aggression against Ukraine would have a high cost. … Then, what I say is that since there is no certainty of what will happen in the next days and weeks, I'm saying at least two things. One is that if they use force, it will come with a high price. Sanctions will be imposed. We have provided, NATO Allies have provided support to Ukraine so they are better trained, better equipped, better commanded now than in 2014’.
February 16, 2022. Statement by NATO Defence Ministers on the situation in and around Ukraine. ‘As stated previously, any further Russian aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences and carry a high price’.
February 19, 2022. Remarks by Vice president Harris and President Zelenskyy Before Bilateral Meeting: ‘If Russia further invades your country … we will impose swift and severe economic sanctions’.
February 22, 2022. Transcript: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Remarks at a Meeting in Honor of Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine: ‘President Biden signed an executive order to respond to President Putin’s actions yesterday, and together with our allies and partners, the United States will not hesitate to impose other severe economic costs as events dictate’.
February 24, 2022. Press briefing by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council. ‘This invasion does not come as a surprise. We have warned against this for months and sadly what happened this morning during the night was something that allied security and intelligence services have predicted for a long time. We have tried to prevent it by calling Russia to engage in diplomatic efforts, by telling Russia that there will be severe costs or economic sanctions if they invade Ukraine further. But what happened over the last hours demonstrates that Russia, despite our diplomatic efforts and despite our clear messages of economic sanctions, decided to once again invade Ukraine’.